With the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls set to begin their highly anticipated Eastern Conference Semifinals series tonight, a game many consider to be the East’s play-in game to the NBA Finals, the one and only Basketball Baby Jesus breaks down 10 factors that will determine who moves on.
1. Key Individual-The wording is crucial here. It’s too easy to pick out one key player, any player really, and justify it. The key individual here is Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau. Thibs is the best coach in this series, hands down. If anyone can figure out a way to dismantle a LeBron led team in ‘Popovichian’ style it’s Thibs. How will he take advantage of J.R. Smith’s absence? How will he take advantage of J.R. Smith’s presence? Will Jimmy Butler guard LeBron all game or just during crunch time? How Thibs uses his advantage over rookie Cavs coach David Blatt is crucial.
2. It takes two-Controversial statement that isn’t all that controversial…Kyrie Irving is the 2nd best player in this series. Jimmy Butler would be 3rd and Rose/Pau 4th if you were wondering. But Kyrie is the only one of those guys capable of going for 45 and winning a game on his own. He can’t just be good; he has to dominate offensively night in and night out for the Cavs to have a chance, because having the best two players on the floor is the Cavs primary advantage.
3. Third banana-Calling Pau Gasol the 3rd banana on the Bulls is a bit unfair, considering there were long stretches this season with Butler and Rose out where he was THE guy. But this is playoff time, and helpful or not, Rose is going to have the ball a lot more than Pau (but hopefully not Jimmy). Pau has to have a great series. He could see extended stretches with the likes of LeBron James and Kendrick Perkins on him. In these cases, and even when Timofey Mozgov is guarding him as well, Pau needs to get touches in the paint area. Also, the matchup to see who complains more to refs throughout the series, Pau or LeBron, is an interesting subplot.
4. Lucky Number-Four is my lucky number, and telling you this is just a way for me to transition into discussing the Cavs own #4, Iman Shumpert. Shumpert is crucial for the Cavs on both ends of the ball, because if they want to win they’re going to need contributions from these less heralded players. Shumpert needs to be the player he was in Game 4 against Boston, when he put up a 15 and 10 while going 3 for 4 from the field and 8 of 8 from the line in 38 minutes. He needs to not be the player from game 3 who only scored 4 points and grabbed one board in 21 minutes. Shumpert will likely be tasked with guarding Jimmy Butler for most of the game, but needs to be able to provide offensive support, especially getting to the line and knocking down 3’s(he was 40% from deep in Round 1).
5. Starting Five-The Bulls have the advantage here, especially without J.R. Smith playing the first two games because of suspension. The Bulls will run out Rose-Butler-Dunleavy-Gasol-Noah. The Cavs will go with Irving-Shumpert (for Smith)-James-Thompson (probably, and for Love)-Mozgov. Before the injuries to Love and suspension for Smith, the Cavs actually would have had the better starting lineup, talent wise. The Bulls starting 5 is more comfortable playing together, and play much better team defense. One note about Thompson starting, which isn’t for sure, is that though he is the best defensive option to matchup with the Bulls, offensively him and Mozgov will clog the lane and fail to provide that stretch option that Love gave opponents fits with.
6. The Old LeBron-I know I know, LeBron switched back to #23 on his return to Cleveland, but I needed something for #6. LeBron is still, without a doubt (SHUTUP BULLS FANS) the best basketball player on the planet. He just is. He is also a notorious Bulls killer come playoff time. In 15 career games against the Bulls in the playoffs, LeBron is 12-3 while averaging 28/8/7 in those games. There’s really no reason to think LeBron won’t be the same LeBron as always in this series. He’s the most skilled, unselfish, ruthless player on the floor, and he knows he’s about to have to turn it up to a new level for this series. Which take us to #7…
7. What’s in the Box? –Jimmy Butler is going to guard LeBron. Jimmy Butler is a very, very good defender. He’s also the most crucial offensive weapon on the floor for the Bulls. While many have understandably focused on how Butler’s offense will suffer while guarding LeBron for 40+ minutes a game, isn’t it also fair to question how his defense will fare at the end of games after guarding LeBron for 40+ minutes AND trying to score 25 points on the other end? I’m not saying Jimmy can’t do both of these things, I’m just saying if he does it will be VERY special. The right thing for the Bulls to do would be to spell Jimmy early and often on defense with Tony Snell, saving the Butler-James matchups until crunch time.
8. Crazy 8’s-Who else could anything labeled crazy be about than the inimitable J.R. Smith. Disclaimer: As a Dark Ages throwback, the Basketball Baby Jesus LOVES J.R. The real question though, is just how valuable will Smith’s absence in the first two games, and in however many games come after that, be. J.R. has undoubtedly been a huge part of the Cavs resurgence since joining the team mid-season, but I think the impact of him sitting out for two games is mitigated by several factors. The first factor is that he’s J.R. Smith and is just likely to shoot you out of a game (something he’s done much less of as a Cav), as he is to keep you in it. The second factor is that the Cavs will be playing the two games without him at home, which will help provide an energy boost they’ll need to overcome his absence. Finally, the fact of the matter is that this is not like losing Love, LeBron or Kyrie for two games, losses that immediately affect the team. Losing a J.R. Smith won’t really change anything over two games. If he were to be out for the whole series, than the issue of depth and having to choose between the deadly trio of Matthew Dellevadova, Mike Miller, and James Jones would be meaningful. That being said, the Bulls have to steal one of these first two games in Cleveland. Failing to beat the Cavs without J.R. Smith, even in Cleveland, should be seen as a major defeat.
9. Nine Lives-Let’s just all bow our heads and ask the Old Gods (and the New) to keep Derrick Rose healthy throughout this series, and forever more, amen.
10. 2010(2011)-Bulls fans love to talk about this being their first healthy team in a long time. They’re right, the Bulls haven’t had every key player back for the playoffs (how healthy they are is a different story, but everyone is banged up at this point) since the 2010 Eastern Conference Finals. Who did they play in 2010? LeBron James and the Heat. The Bulls were the #1 seed that year and Derrick Rose was the MVP. What happened? The Heat took the series 4-2 before losing to the Mavericks in the Finals. Most memorable was the job LeBron James did shutting down Derrick Rose’s offensive game. He was completely boxed up. I don’t know if LeBron can still do that, or if the matchups will even allow him to try, but that’s always stuck in my head as one of the great “I got this” moments of LeBron’s career. Now Kyrie has replaced D-Wade, no one has replaced Chris Bosh, and the Bulls have Butler instead of Luol Deng. Five years later and nothing has really changed.
Prediction: Cavs in 6
These two teams are the perfect foils for each other. They each have advantages and disadvantages they can tap into. Basically, I think it’s weak to pick a team to win in 7. It’s basically saying you have no idea who is going to win. I really don’t have any idea who will win, but I also can’t get that 2010 series out of my head. The Bulls love to try and bully LeBron, and I think that gets into their own heads more than it does his. They start playing out of their element, further helping LeBron along the way. Did I mention LeBron is playing? He’s the best player on the floor, it’s not even close, and I think he’s going to play like it. Kyrie will gain the edge over Rose, and Jimmy Butler and Pau playing great still won’t be enough for the Bulls to overcome LeBron and Kyrie. I think they split the first two in Cleveland and the second two in Chicago, and then Cleveland wins the next two, finishing out the series at the United Center. It should be an awesome series with uncommon intensity for a semifinal matchup. These two teams, LeBron and the Bulls, don’t like each other. Sit back and enjoy the animosity.
Zane Writes Well 